Today is Thursday, May 17, 2012

Health Care Polls

Don’t believe Gallup’s report that 40% of Americans are conservatives, 36% moderates, 21% liberals

Gallup reports that 40% of Americans are conservatives, 36% are moderates and 21% are liberals. Take this survey with a grain of salt. It doesn’t make sense because it doesn’t reflect voter registrations nor how people vote. In November, Gallup said 48% of registered voters would vote for Republican congressional candidates and 44% would vote for Democrats. Rasmussen just reported that 35.5% of Americans see themselves as Democrats while 34% see themselves as Republicans. Those probably are the real liberal and conservative numbers. Rasmussen Reports’ impact graphs:

Wall Street Journal Poll shows waning support for health care deform (HR 3590)

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News polls shows, “More Americans now believe it is better to keep the current health system than to pass President Barack Obama’s plan.”

The Journal reports on its web site:

Poll: Democrats’ health care deform losing favor

A poll sponsored by the Washington Post and ABC, which always ask questions in ways designed to generate responses backing the Democrats and the left, finds that even the mostly liberal folks in the country don’t believe in ObamaCare. Impact graphs:

Polls show how divided Americans are on health insurance bills (HR 3962, S 1796)

A new Washington Post/ABC poll shows how divided Americans are about health insurance reform. This poll always favors the Democrats and its sample usually is over loaded with Democrats, so beware. Rasmussen Reports that 47% of voters as opposed to “Americans” support the health insurance plan proposed by President Obama and the Democrats. Gallup found 50% of Americans say that it is not the government’s responsibility to provide health care and 47% say it is.

57% say ObamaCare will boost costs, 53% say it will reduce quality of care, 45% favor passage

That’s the Rasmussen Report’s findings.

And Gallup says only 20% of Americans say they are liberals?

Politico: Pelosi doesn’t have the votes for public option health insurance bill, HR 3200

Even though Senate Majority Leader Reid now favors an opt-out for the states on a public option health plan and Politico reports that Speaker Pelosi discovered last night that she doesn’t have the votes for a strong public option, Intrade’s speculators think there is a 20% chance of a public option plan being enacted by Jan. 1.

Rasmussen: 49% say better to pass no health reform plan than to accept S 1796, HR 3200;

Rasmussen Reports today said 49% say it would be better to not pass a health reform bill before Congress, down from 54% who said that in August.

65% favor removing anti-trust exemptions for health insurers under the apparently false impression that this would increase competition among private insurers.

Links

 

70% oppose individual mandate in health insurance reform bills

The Galen Institute, a conservative think tank that focuses on health care and health insurance policy issues, released a poll showing 70% of respondents oppose an individual mandate and other “key components” of the health insurance” billls before Congress. Click head to see a link to the news release:

 

Beware of Kaiser Family Foundation’s poll on health care ‘reform’

Liberals are touting a new poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation that shows 57% of its respondents believe “It is more important than ever to take on health care reform now.” 39% believe “We cannot afford to take on health care reform now.”

As previously noted, the Rasmussen Report shows that 56% of voters oppose the health plans going through Congress and 41% support.

Beware of the Kaiser poll. While the poll results look

 

41% of Americans support Obama health plan; 56% oppose

Rasmussen reports that 41% of voters favor President Obama’s health insurance reforms, whatever they may be, down two points from a week ago. 56% oppose.

Obviously Obama’s speech before Congress and his appearances on five Sunday political shows last week hurt him more than they helped.

And he’s losing support even though opponents have no prominent leaders who can match the president’s bully pulpit.

Amazing.

Lede graphs from Rasmussen:

Rasmussen says polls are bad news for Obama’s health care reform bill

Most Americans are happy with their health insurance. 41% strongly oppose President Obama’s health care reforms, and only 29% support. Independents are very much against the Democrats’ plans, according Scott Rasmussen’s article in The Wall Street Journal.

Gallup: Well-Being index creeps higher for fourth straight month

The Healthways-Gallup Well-Being index edged sllightly higher for the fourth consecutive month, which is an important indicator that consumers may be feeling better about themselves and their prospects.

The survey is sponsored by Healthways (HWAY), which provides wellness and preventive care services to employers.

Because the survey is only about 18 months old, it’s too early to see whether it is a leading or lagging economic indicator.

Rasmussen: Public turning against Obama’s health care reform

President Obama’s health care deform [sic] is losing support, according to Rasmussen’s latest poll.

Rasmussen: 37% say Massachusett’s universal health insurance is a failure; 26% call it a success

One reason that Congress appears to be backing off creating a public option health insurance plan that would compete with private health insurers is that the Massachusetts universal plan that has been touted as a model for the public option isn’t working out as expected..

In a new Rasmussen poll, 37% of Massachusetts voters called the state’s universal health insurance scheme a failure, compared with 26% who called it a success. 37% of respondents to the poll said they aren’t sure whether the plan is a success or failure.

53% of the state’s voters say they haven’t seen any change in the quality of health care, 29% say it has gotten worse and 10% say it has gotten better.

Similarly, 44% of the state’s voters say they’ve seen no change in the affordability of health care, 27% say health care has become less affordable and 21% say health care is more affordable.

As has been widely reported, the state has had to cut benefits because of the unexpectedly high cost of the plan. A veto-proof state legislature made the plan more costly over the objections of Mitt Romney who was governor when the plan was enacted in 2006.

Rasmussen reports that 50% of American voters “at least somewhat” favor the Democrats’ health insurance plan that is making its way through Congress, and 45% oppose. The poll found, however, that 24% strongly favor the plan while 34% are strongly opposed, according to Rasmussen.

So far, it isn’t clear what the Democrats’ plan is because several are under consideration.

Links:

Access-to-care problems are resurfacing in Mass. American Medical News.

Bad Massachusetts health care plan in bad trouble. OpenmediaBoston.org.

Massachusetts health care: A model not to copy: Phyllis Schlafly

Wellpoint (WLP) held down by health care reform uncertainties

Wellpoint Health Networks Inc. (WLP) is looking like a buy to Barron’s, Morningstar and some technical analysts despite the stock’s sharp runup since early March. Options traders seem to be more bearish on WLP.

Better pricing in the health insurance markets and the increasing odds that Congress won’t create a Medicare for all, or public option health plan that would compete with Wellpoint are all very bullish.

But, and this is a big “but,” there still is uncertainty about what kind of health insurance market changes will get through Congress this year or anytime soon.

While the betting in Washington is that the public option is dead on arrival, the feeling seems to be that there is about a 50% chance that some kind of changes in the health insurance markets will be enacted before the end of the year. That’s the top priority of President Obama and Congressional leaders.

While the highly flawed and biased New York Times/NBC and Washington Post/ABC polls show that most insured Americans are happy with their health insurance and health care costs, those polls also show that voters are worried about what health care reform would do to their health care costs, quality and access. And they’re very worried that the reforms would sharply increase the federal budget deficit.

This means, of course, that Congressional reformers face huge obstacles and that health insurers like Wellpoint have less to fear from Congress than they did a few months ago.

Wellpoint bottomed out last March at $27.50, down from a 52-week high of $57.88. It recovered to about $52 before correcting to $51.34 as of Friday’s close. Its bullish charts are here. Note that WLP has met its point and figure chart price objective of $51 a share. Wellpoint’s key statistics are here.

In the June 29, 2009, Barron’s, Johanna Bennett likes the stock because its forward PE ratio is 8.31 compared with a projected 10.5% annual growth rate, which gives WLP a PEG ratio (PE/projected growth rate) of 0.94. That looks cheap if you believe the growth rate projections, which are highly uncertain. Barron’s says Wellpoint’s profits are “poised to outgrow the Street’s expectations.” We’ll see.

Morningstar gives WLP its top 5-star rating. It says WLP’s fair value estimate is $95 and says consider buying the stock as long as it’s under $66.50 and selling it when it tops $133. It gives its fair value estimate a medium uncertainty rating.

Morningstar’s Matthew Coffina is bullish on the stock because he sees better pricing and margins despite rising unemployment. He thinks Wellpoint and its competitors are too smart to get into a price war because it wouldn’t attract many new enrollees or improve profits. If health insurers can avert a price war, it would be one of the few times they did that during a major recession.

As mentioned in an earlier post, Coffina’s article on the implications of possible changes in health insurance laws and regulations is one of the most comprehensive I’ve been able to find.

Wellpoint, its competitors and exchange traded funds that track health and heath care stocks all look very promising.

The big questions are, what will rising unemployment do to health insurers’ bottom lines and stocks, and what kind of positive and negative surprises does Congress have in store for speculators in health care and health insurers’ stocks?

Also note that while Wellpoint has been buying back shares, which inflates its earnings per share, it has not paid dividends. It’s usually a mistake for companies to buy back shares because they usually pay to much for those shares, but any shares WLP bought since March probably were cheap.

One way to get a feel for WLP’s stock price outlook is to check what options traders think of the stock. The WLP January 2010 $50 strike calls are priced at $7 bid a share. This means that bullish options traders think the stock will top $57 by next January.

WLP January 2010 $50 strike puts are $5.70 bid, which means bearish options traders think the stock will be below $44.30 by next January. The put to call ratio is a bearish 2.81. It shows more options traders are buying puts than calls. However, if you’re a contrarian, the ratio of puts to call trades is bullish because it shows too much pessimism.

The options market seems to be saying WLP is moderately risky. In a buy/write, or covered call trade of WLP Aug $50 strike calls, the annualized return over 54 days if the stock tops $50 when the August call option expires will be about 52.66%. If the stock closes below the $50 strike price and isn’t called, the annualized return will be a still nice 35.02%. Covered call trade returns on less risky stocks can be as low as 1% to 15% annualized.

In a covered call trade, a speculator buys 100 shares of a stock and sells one call contract for 100 shares.  In effect, the immediate 7.79% return on the trade gives you a hedge, or cushion, on the stock. A call option gives the buyer the right to buy a stock at the strike price, if the stock closes above the strike price. A put option gives a trader the right to sell a stock for the strike price if the stock closes below the strike price.

Charts for leading insurers and health ETFs, AET, CI, CVH, HS, HUM, UNH, WLP, XLV, IYH and VHT are here. Click on a chart to see a gallery of charts for a stock or ETF.

I don’t have positions in WLP or any of the stocks or ETFs mentioned above.

For educational purposes only. Investigate before you speculate. I am not recommending any trades and take no responsibility for how others trade stocks, ETFs, commodities or anything else.