Today is Saturday, February 04, 2012

Polls

Nate Silver: Rasmussen polls statistically ‘biased;’ SurveyUSA polls more accurate

During the 2010 election cycle, Rasmussen Reports issued about 100 polls on races in Colorado and around the country, but polling guru Nate Silver says the Rasmussen Reports were biased toward Republicans and suffered from cost cutting short cuts that produced misleading results. The cost cutting will cost Rasmussen clients as well as credibility. No pollsters are perfect. "Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well," Silver writes. I have to admit that I've been in denial about the Rasmussen bias. LINK: Rasmussen polls were biased and inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA performed strongly, by Nate Silver. UPDATE: Silver defines 'bias' as statistical bias as revealed in poll results compared with other pollsters, not necessarily political bias. When 'house effects' become 'bias', by Nate Silver.

Which pollster did best on Colorado’s 2010 elections?

Which pollser called the Colorado governor's race? Curtis Hubbard tallies the winners and losers here.

Denver Post/ 9News poll comes close on Senate race; CNN poll about nails gubernatorial race

The Denver Post/ 9News poll by SurveyUSA about nailed Colorado's U.S. Senate race. And the CNN/Time poll came very close to calling the percentages on the gubernatorial race. LINKS: Ken Buck 47%, Michael Bennet 47% and gaining. The Business Word, 10.24.2010. CNN poll: John Hickenlooper 51%, Tom Tancredo 37%, Dan Maes 10%. The Business Word, 10.27. 2010.

PPC: John Hickenlooper 48%, Tom Tancredo 43%, Dan Maes 8%; Fox says Hick 47%, Tanc 44%, Maes 6%

John Hickenlooper is leading Tom Tancredo 48% to 43% with 8% going to Dan Maes, according to the final poll by Public Policy Polling. Hickenlooper is getting 87% of the Democratic vote while Tancredo's only getting 71% of the Republican vote. Tancredo says that he will win if he gets 80% of Republicans, and David Flaherty, the CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, has predicted that he will. The final Fox News poll says Hickenlooper 47%, Tancredo 44% and Maes 6%. Fox says Hickenlooper's favorables are 54% to 41% unfavorables while Tancredo's are 48% to 44%. 

 LINKS: Close Senate race in Colorado, by Public Policy Polling. Colorado survey of 1,000 likely voters, Fox News provides interesting cross tabs. Tom Tancredo, John Suthers will win; GOP will retake Colorado House, Senate, by Donald E. L. Johnson, 10.29.2010. Gasp! Pollster says Tancredo wins by 2, by Chuck Plunkett.

PPP: Ken Buck 49%, Michael Bennet 48%; Fox says Buck 50%, Bennet 46%

Republican Ken Buck is leading Democrat Michael Bennet 49% to 48% in the final poll by Public Policy Polling. Bennet is leading among those who have voted early 52% to 48%. Buck is leading among those who plan to vote but haven't yet, 55% to 41%. The Fox News poll says Buck leads Bennet 50% to 46%. The margin of victory probably will be one to two points, and warnings that there could be a recount seem to be a little too alarmist.

Tom Tancredo agrees with pollster that he can win; says he needs over 80% of Republicans’ votes

If 80% of Republicans vote for Tom Tancredo for governor of Colorado Tuesday, he can win, he told rallies Saturday in Greenwood Village, Ft. Collins, Loveland and Littleton. This is my favorite clip.

 LINKS: Tom Tancredo, John Suthers will win; GOP will retake Colorado House, Senate, by Donald E. L. Johnson, 10.29.2010. Gasp! Pollster says Tancredo wins by 2, by Chuck Plunkett.

John Hickenlooper 47%, Tom Tancredo 43%, Dan Maes 7% in McClatchy-Marist poll

John Hickenlooper leads Tom Tancredo 47% to 43% with Dan Maes coming in at 7% in a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

Ken Buck 49%, Michael Bennet 45% in McClatchy-Marist poll

Ken Buck leads Michael Bennet 49% to 45% in the McClatchy-Marist poll.

Rasmussen: John Hickenlooper 47%, Tom Tancredo 42%, Dan Maes 5%

John Hickenlooper leads Tom Tancredo 47% to 42% among likely voters while Dan Maes gets 5%, according to Rasmussen Reports.

However, in an interview this morning, David Flaherty, CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a pollster that works for Republicans, told me that he thinks Rasmussen misuses Colorado's demographic information in its polls. "They're good and know what they're doing," he said. But he thinks Rasmussen gives the GOP less credit for its historical and anticipated turnout and the Democrats more. As I reported this morning, Flaherty thinks Tancredo will win.

Tom Tancredo, John Suthers will win; GOP will retake Colorado House, Senate

Tom Tancredo will become Colorado's next governor, and Republicans will take over the state's legislature while Attorney General John Suthers will be re-elected, predicted David Flaherty, president and CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a Louisville, CO, pollster that works for Republicans around the country. In a phone interview, Flaherty said polls that show John Hickenlooper winning the gubernatorial race are using demographics and turnout numbers that incorrectly skew their results in favor of Democrats.

What will Rasmussen report on Colorado’s gubernatorial contest?

Rasmussen Reports is about to report its latest survey results for the Colorado gubernatorial contest between Tom Tancredo and John Hickenlooper. Rasmussen's findings are critical because other recent polls have been so confusing. Two or three recent polls have Hickenlooper leading Tancredo by 10 to 14 points, and two others have him leading by one to three points. Rasmussen just released a new report on California where Republican Meg Whitman has moved to within 4 points of former Gov. Jerry Brown who leads her 49% to 45%, making that race a toss up, according to Rasmussen. UPDATE: Rasmussen has posted its Massachusetts poll, which shows the incumbent Obama Democrat  Deval Patrick and the Republican leading the Republican challenger Charles Baker 46% to 44% with a Democrat who has turned independent, Tim Cahil getting 6%.

CD-3 may go for Scott Tipton, CD-4 for Cory Gardner, CD-7 for Ed Perlmutter; Senate a toss up

Republicans have good chances of unseating two Congressional Democrats in Colorado while the U.S. Senate race is a toss up, according to Real Clear Politics, which says the GOP will win the U.S. House and Democrats probably will hold the Senate.

CNN poll: John Hickenlooper 51%, Tom Tancredo 37%, Dan Maes 10%

John Hickenlooper leads Tom Tancredo for governor among 829 likely voters 51% to 37% with Dan Maes coming in at 10%, according to a CNN/Time poll. The poll was conducted Oct. 20 to 26, which means that it has a lot of out-of-date replies because there has been a lot of campaign news since Oct. 20. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll apparently hasn't been weighted for historical voting patterns, early turnout or expected turnout patterns. Two polls have Hickenlooper leading by 10 to 14 points and two by 3 to 4 percentage points. I don't think the differences reflect pollsters biases as much as differences in methodology and timing of the polling.

Rasmussen: Ken Buck 48%, Michael Bennet 44%; CNN: Buck 47%, Bennet 46%;

Colorado's U.S. Senate race is a toss up with Ken Buck leading Michael Bennet among 750 likely voters 48% to 44% with 6% undecided, according to Rasmussen Reports. Two weeks ago Buck led 47% to 45%. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. A CNN/Time poll of likely voters has Buck leading Bennet 47% to 46%. CNN says Buck leads among men 51% to 39% and Bennet leads among women 54% to 42%. CNN says:

John Hickenlooper 47%, Tom Tancredo 44%, Dan Maes 5%; Ken Buck, Michael Bennet tied at 47%

John Hickenlooper is leading Tom Tancredo in the latest Public Policy Polling survey of likely voters 47% to 44% with Dan Maes sinking to 5%. Tancredo is getting 73% of Republicans' votes and leads Hickenlooper with independents 46% to 44%.