Today is Thursday, May 17, 2012

PPC

Andrew Romanoff 48%, Michael Bennet 45%; Ken Buck 50%, Jane Norton 41%

The Republican and Democratic parties’ U.S. Senate primaries are toss ups.

Andrew Romanoff leads appointed Obama Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet 48% to 45% with 8% undecided, according to a USA Survey poll sponsored by 9News and the Denver Post. That’s a dramatic improvement for Romanoff from a month ago when Bennet led Romanoff 53% to 36%. Because mail voting has been underway for more than a week and has 10 days to go, it’s hard to tell whether Romanoff can hold off a late charge by the well funded Bennet.

In the GOP’s race, Ken Buck leads Jane Norton 50% to 41%. That’s more than opposite the 5-point lead that the Washington Post reported that an unnamed pollster gave Norton last week. Beware of unnamed pollsters. Buck’s obviously doing the best of the four Senate candidates in the polls.

See the links below to see the matchups between the Republicans and Democrats, but they don’t mean much at this point.

The survey also found that J. J. Ament leads in the GOP’s Treasurer contest 39% to 36% for Walker Stapleton. Ament is the GOP activists’ favorite because he has long roots in Colorado. Stapleton has avoided meeting Ament in at least eight scheduled joint appearances and reportedly is avoiding most contact with Republicans and voters. He is using his wealth to fund his campaign and is spending a lot of money on negative broadcast and direct mail ads against Ament. Having interviewed both guys, the ads look misleading and specious to me, and that calls Stapleton’s integrity into question, I think. He’s buying the nomination and doing whatever it takes to win. Because of Stapleton’s unfair and misleading ads against Ament, relatively few Republican activists will care if he beats incumbent Treasurer Cary Kennedy in the fall if he’s nominated.

LINKs:

Poll: Romanoff barely beating Bennet; Maes ahead of Mcinnis. by Christina Dickinson, 9News.

Romanoff pulls even with Bennet, poll finds. By Allison Sherry, Denver Post.

Ken Buck for Colorado.

Jane Norton for Colorado.

Survey USA. Survey USA is considered a credible pollster.

 

John Hickenlooper 46% to 24% each for Tom Tancredo, Dan Maes in 3-way

Without running a commercial or having said much during the Colorado Republican’s disastrous July, Governor-elect John Hickenlooper has the support of 46% of Colorado voters in a three-way race against Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes who get 24% each. If the GOP candidate is Scott McInnis instead of Maes, he would get 25% to 26% for Tancredo and 44% for Hickenlooper, according to a new poll published in the Denver Post. (Now that I’ve found the actual poll results on 9News, the poll’s co-sponsor, I’ve corrected the numbers, which weren’t totally clear on the Post’s site.) The poll shows the underfunded Maes, who has failed to impress Republican activists, leading the admitted plagiarist, McInnis, 43% to 39% with a 4 point margin of error.

As a result of McInnis’ integrity scandal and growing doubts about his competence, McInnis is sinking rapidly in the polls even before Hickenlooper or independent Democrat groups have a chance to hit him hard with negative ads. And Maes, who has his own ethical and competence problems is gaining on McInnis only because while he’s been hammered in the media and on conservative blogs, he really hasn’t been taken on by the Democrats, either.

I’ve been predicting that in a three way race, Hickenlooper would get 45% of the vote to about 35% for Tancredo and 5% to 10% for McInnis (or Maes). That looks like the direction the campaign is going.

That the Post’s poll shows that Hickenlooper is leading Maes 50% to 41% and McInnis 48% to 43% doesn’t mean much because the public is still coming to grips with the character and competency weaknesses of the GOP candidates.

McInnis and Maes are at their peaks. Hickenlooper, his backers and Tancredo will bury them with negative ads and reminders of why McInnis and Maes would be lousy and weak governors.

If Maes wins, which still seems unlikely given that so many McInnis backers made the mistake of voting early, he won’t drop out. That means that there would be a three-way race between Hickenlooper, Tancredo and Maes. Hickenlooper almost certainly would win. 

Tancredo may be running on the American Constitution Party ticket, but he’s really a Republican and always will be. Maes, on the other hand, has said that the GOP doesn’t mean much to him. 

Republican leaders and activists currently are trashing their best candidate, Tancredo, the real Republican. Are they going to back the so so conservative and wimpy Republican, Maes, or the real Republican, Tancredo? 

To date, the state’s GOP central committee is pursuing a losing strategy of backing Mcinnis or Maes regardless of their integrity, intellectual, experience and competency failings. The Colorado GOP brand is going the way of Enron. 

The central committee had better reconsider and get behind Tancredo unofficially, if not officially.

Tancredo spent 10 years in the state legislature and 10 in Congress. He’s much smarter and wiser than any of the other three candidates—Hickenlooper, McInnis and Maes—and he would be a much better governor than any of them.

The Denver Post poll shows how the McInnis scandal has destroyed his candidacy. Once the public knows more about Maes, his popularity will tank, too. In 2006, Bob Beauprez made a few untimely and stupid comments and lost by some 17 percentage points. McInnis and Maes have not only said dumb things, they have done and are doing things that make them look dumb. They have no chance and probably will make “Both ways Bob” look like a genius.

If McInnis manages to win the primary, it’s hard to see how he could stay in the race. He’s a very slow learner and very proud and stubborn, but he’s a political pro and can read the tea leaves well enough to know that he’s done. The pressure on him to quit is growing, and this poll, negative ads and a few nudges from his sugar daddies may get him to quit.

As long as Maes or Mcinnis are in the race, Tancredo will be in to win. There will be a three-way race, and only Governor-elect Hickenlooper will enjoy the show.

The poll was conducted by Survey USA.

LINKs:

Maes holds slight edge over McInnis, poll says. By Michael Booth and Colleen O’Connor.

Poll: Romanoff barely beating Bennet; Maes ahead of McInnis. By Christina Dickinson.

Tea Party ‘bible’:The Star Fish and the Spider

The Starfish and the Spider supposedly is must reading for politicians trying to understand the power of the Tea Party and how it may self-destruct, according to Kenneth P. Vogel. Read his story and then download the book to your Kindle or Kindle reader.

Tea Party, 9-12 and similar groups get their power from their leaderless decentralization. If they accept national leaders and start running candidates, they’ll be easy targets for the major parties.

 

Politically incorrect Ken Buck losing to Jane Norton?

Ken Buck’s politically incorrect complaint about a few birthers who gave him hard times at Tea Party events and his allegedly sexist quip about Jane Norton’s high heels may cost him the GOP’s Aug. 10 Senate primary, according to an unnamed pollster cited by a Washington Post political blogger.

Birthers say President Obama wasn’t born in the U.S. and isn’t legally qualified to serve as president, but most Americans discount their claim and, like Buck, don’t want to hear anymore about it.

Of course, I’ve been predicting that Buck’s high heels quip could cost him, especially because Norton came up with a great ad that implies that Buck is sexist because he made the dumb joke. That Norton has joked about her gender in the campaign apparently hasn’t softened the negative impact of his comment or of the ad. And that the Norton campaign made the ad using an unattributed film clip without the permission of its owner, http://www.peoplespresscollective.com, probably isn’t on voters’ radar screens. The Buck campaign is making a big issue of the web site’s complaints about how Norton improperly used its clip, but so far, it’s an insiders’ debate.

How Buck’s complaint that a few people who attended Tea Party events were disruptive could hurt him is a bit hard to understand. The complaint may be a problem for Buck because it initially looked like he was calling everyone involved with Tea Parties dumbaxx “birthers.” 

Most curious is that WaPo’s The Fix would report the results of a poll conducted by an unnamed pollster. That pollster is saying that Norton leads Buck by five percentage points. Who the pollster is and works for and how and when the poll was conducted are not reported by Chris Cillizza who writes The Fix.

However, the poll results have some credibility in light of the latest Rasmussen Reports’ poll. It shows Norton with a nine point lead over appointed Obama Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet, compared with Buck’s six-point lead. But Buck has a six-point lead over Bennet’s primary challenger, Andrew Romanoff. Norton leads Romanoff by four percentage points. Both primaries look like toss-ups.

So while I’ve been saying that it appears that Norton has the momentum and that Buck is on defense, I’m not ready to declare Norton the winner of the primary. This mildly negative personality contest is still a toss-up until we get better information or until the primary is held.

LINKs:

Colorado primary provides fireworks a-plenty. By Chris Cillizza.

Norton attack ad [film clip] improperly taken from Peoples Press Collective video. 

Election 2010: Colorado Senate. By Rasmussen Reports.

Tom Tancredo looks like a casual governor

Tom Tancredo’s debut as a formal candidate for governor went off without a hitch. He dressed retired casual.

He sounded like a traditional gubernatorial candidate—with a sense of humor.

Indeed, at his announcement press conference, he did a better job of explaining his platform and agenda than any of the Republicans or Obama Democrat John Hickenlooper ever have explained theirs.

Tancredo came across as authoritative, knowledgeable and a man who’s been in the public spotlight for a long time.

He’s finally capitalizing on his 10 years in the state legislature, his years in Congress and his unsuccessful 2008 campaign for president. Nothing fazes him, and he has fun.

As he has for years, Tancredo spoke about his continuing efforts to protect Colorado workers and taxpayers from illegal immigrants. He said that Colorado taxpayers pay some $250 million to pay for the infrastructure required to support illegal immigrants. And that, he pointed out, is more than the state’s budget deficit.

While promising to roll back taxes that Governor Bill Ritter and his fellow Democrats enacted as fees, Tancredo also said that Colorado’s businesses should not expect hand outs.

They should expect fair treatment, he said.

His platform is on his web site, and I’ve reproduced it and commented on it in a previous post. 

LINKs:

Tom Tancredo posts his platform for jobs, modernizing government, securing Colorado. The Business Word, 7.29.2010.

Tom Tancredo for Governor.

Tom Tancredo would support Jane Norton if she won primary

Tom Tancredo said after his announcement press conference today that he could support Jane Norton for Senate if she beats Ken Buck in the Aug. 10 primary. 

When I asked about supporting Norton, Tancredo turned with a sigh, and said ‘Yeah.” And that wasn’t with an exclamation point, but it drew a laugh. Tancredo supports Buck in the primary. 

He said he continues to support all Republicans he’ has endorsed for down ticket offices, and none have asked him to withdraw his endorsements.

Tom Tancredo posts his platform for jobs, modernizing government, securing Colorado

Gubernatorial candidate Tom Tancredo has posted a modestly ambitious plan for making Colorado a strong and prosperous place to run a business and raise a family.

His four-point agenda for Creating Jobs looks like a good conservative, pro-business, pro-worker platform. Unlike Scott McInnis, Tancredo is intellectually honest about how little power a Colorado governor has when it comes to creating jobs. That is, a governor has no power over the nation’s fiscal or monetary policies or its labor laws, environmental laws or international trade agreements. The plan with my comments in italics:

1. Restore the business sales tax exemptions that were eliminated by the Ritter “Dirty Dozen” Tax hikes, the Senior Homestead Exemption, and roll back the mill levy freeze.
2. Repeal the job-killing Business Personal Property Tax. This probably would bring more than enough new jobs to Colorado  to cover the lost tax revenues, and it would encourage much more capital investments in the state.
3. Revisit and revise harmful Ritter-era regulations, including the restrictive new oil and gas regulations. Colorado’s regulations favor huge companies that have staff who deal with such regulations. The Ritter regulations are anti small business and small employer. They discriminate against small, Colorado-based exploration and production companies and drive them to other states.
4. Protect American workers (and help honest employers ensure that their employees are legally in the country) through the use of a mandatory workplace verification system such as E-Verify. Every honest employer is for this plan. Employers who exploit underpaid illegals and the lawyers, educators, health workers and social workers who profit from helping illegals oppose fixing the system. Illegal immigrants distort American labor markets in favor of unscrupulous employers and against under paid American workers.

His four point agenda for Modernizing Government (instead of Fiscal Conservatism as posted yesterday) looks conservative, but not all independents will go for it. My comments are in italics:

1. Build a “zero- based” budget. Lots of politicians have proposed this over the years. I don’t know that any legislatures ever went along. Colorado has a weak governor form of government, and I doubt this is doable.
2. Restore the limit on state spending. This is a really broad statement. Would this be done in cooperation with the General Assembly or by ballot initiative?
3. Achieve cost savings by contracting with the private sector, where appropriate, to carry out certain state services. This makes a lot of sense provided that the state retains the powers and hires the talent needed to ensure that private contractors improve the quality of state services while containing or reducing expenses. Today, we contract out road building and other construction services in ways that encourage over building. Contractors are major contributors to Colorado’s political campaigns, and they contribute to the candidates who they think will spend the most money on their services and will hire them.
4. Refuse federal dollars that come with unsustainable, long-term state spending commitments or harmful federal mandates. Nice and idealistic but a not totally practical plan. If we don’t take our dollars from the Fed, New York, Illinois and other unionized and nearly bankrupt states get them. Tancredo needs to explain which dollars he would take and which he wouldn’t. The General Assembly may not go along.

Securing Colorado is the agenda everyone’s waiting to see. It looks great to me. I think it will appeal to most conservatives who aren’t trying to exploit illegal immigrants’ low wage demands, and a lot of independents will like the plan. Republicans who want to see this plan implemented must help the GOP take back the legislature and elect Tancredo. The plan:

1. Implement tough new Arizona-style interior and employer enforcement laws.
2. Withhold state funds from local governments that enact so-called “sanctuary policies”
3. Oppose providing taxpayer subsidized in-state tuition benefits to illegal immigrants.
4. Audit state and local government compliance with state immigration laws.

LINKs:

Tom Tancredo for Governor.

Tom Tancredo’s web site is up

Tom Tancredo for Governor.

The web site’s still a work in progress. But you can see what Tom will be running on. The main headline is:

Tanc Tough; “This is our culture-fight for it. This is our flag-pick it up. This is our country- take it back.” - Congressman Tom Tancredo.

I’d like that line to read:

Tanc Tough; Integrity in Government, Straight Talk, Less Spending, Lower Taxes, Balanced Budgets, Security, Great Education, Good Health Care, Sensible Environmentalism 

He has links for:

• Jobs
• Fiscal conservatism
• Secure Colorado

Here’s what I hope he will say about:

Jobs: I will make it attractive for businesses and nonprofits to create and bring jobs to Colorado. And I will eliminate and rewrite silly and costly regulations. We will make it easier and less expensive for the state to administer regulations. It should not cost businesses a fortune to create and keep jobs in Colorado. Employers are not our enemies. They create jobs.

Fiscal Conservatism: I will rewrite laws and regulations in Colorado so that we can cut the cost of running our state government by 25%. We will not only balance our budget, but also shrink it. We will enforce the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, and we will not raise any taxes or fees. Labor unions will not milk Colorado’s taxpayers or run our state. I will reverse the executive order that unionized employees of the state of Colorado. Increased liberty and fewer regulations will return freer markets and prosperity for all to Colorado.

Secure Colorado. I will increase Colorado’s security by enforcing all of our laws. We will make sure that illegal immigrants are not taking our jobs and draining our schools and hospitals of scarce resources. Denver no longer will be a sanctuary city. Colorado will not become a sanctuary state if I become governor. Criminals will stay in jail.

Scott McInnis is to 2010 GOP as Nixon was to 1976 GOP: A disaster

Possibly too many Colorado Republicans are in denial about Scott McInnis, and they are imploding.

The party’s leaders and too many activists are more worried about beating Governor-elect John Hickenlooper than about the future of Colorado. They want to elect Scott McInnis even though it is clear that he lies, blows off clients and voters, delivers much more to top contributors than to constituents and doesn’t care or know much about the issues.

What today’s GOP apparently isn’t getting is that McInnis is to the 2010 GOP as President Richard Nixon was to 1976 Republicans. He’s a disaster.

He is setting up the GOP for losing not only the governor’s race, but every other down ticket race. Worse, he’s setting up the GOP for years in the whining gallery.

After Nixon, we got Jimmy Carter, the worst president in history. Only Ronald Reagan was able to save the country and the party from having to live down Nixon’s Watergate longer than it did. It’s very unlikely that a once-in-lifetime Republican will come along to save the GOP from McInnism. The state’s GOP bench doesn’t have a Ronald Reagan in the wings.

Both Hickenlooper and Tancredo will hammer away at McInnis’ ethical record. They’ll mock his earmarking, his service to contributors and the way he plagiarized and blew off the Hasan Family Foundation. They’ll quote his family friend, Rolly Fischer, who called him a liar about the plagiarism scandal.

And Democrats will spend years talking about the Scott McInnis Republicans and their lack of integrity.

Republicans don’t get it yet. But they will.

Is Ken Buck as unethical as Americans for Job Security?

Given the ethical problems of gubernatorial candidates, Scott McInnis and Dan Maes, voters are more concerned about the integrity of politicians than they were only a few weeks ago. And Democrat Charles Rangel’s ethics problems in the U.S. House are making voters even more concerned about the integrity and character of this year’s candidates in all races.

Corrupt politicians try to reduce our liberty and distort free markets in favor of their campaign contributors.

Thus, we have Ken Buck’s sugar daddies at Americans for Job Security running ads that are painting his opponent, Jane Norton, as a tax and spend Republican. These ads are both misleading and self serving, because they are being funded by a few government contractors who are backing Ken Buck because they expect that if he is elected, he will make sure that the Senate passes government programs that will enrich those contractors. They are trying to elect an earmark Senator. 

Buck will have to pay back the government contractors who are paying for the radio and TV ads that are attacking Norton and dishonestly painting her as a tax and spend Republican. And he will.

Norton promises that she won’t be an earmark Senator and that “bringing home the bacon,” won’t be her priority. Fixing the country’s budget deficit and other fiscal problems are her top priorities. Controlling government spending is her top priority, she says. 

Buck encourages these ads even though he has nothing to do with them directly. He pretends that Norton increased government spending in her previous jobs in the state and federal government, which is untrue. He makes a big issue of Ref. C, which 52% of voters approved in 2005 as provided for under TABOR.

What we have here is a career government attorney, Buck, who is trying to cleverly duck his own ethical problems, inaccurately rewrite Norton’s resume and promise to do things he can’t deliver on.

I’ve heard and talked to Buck and Norton many times. I’ve interviewed both of them. I like both of them and can support the winner of the primary. I’m neutral in this race.

But I have to say that Norton comes across as more direct and straightforward than Buck.

I just heard Norton talk to the South Metro Denver Chamber of Commerce. She is a very talented speaker, knows the issues and would make a strong and believable Senate candidate. The Democrats could attack her on the issues just as they would attack Buck.

But I think the Democrats would have trouble attacking Norton on her character. They would have a field day with Buck, I’m afraid.

The McInnis scandal has cost the GOP the governor’s race. Will it also cost the GOP a critical U.S. Senate seat?

Note that Americans for Job Security is basically an ad agency that allows conservatives to pour millions into political attack ads without disclosing their identities until next April, long after the election is over.

Jane Norton 48%, Michael Bennet 39%; Ken Buck 48%, Bennet 42%

Republican Senate candidate Jane Norton beats appointed Obama Democrat 48% to 39%, and her opponent, Ken Buck, beats Bennet 48% to 42%. Norton beats Andrew Romanoff, 44% to 40% and Buck beats Romanoff 48% to 42%, according to Rasmussen Reports.

“Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republicans by double-digit margins to their Democratic opponents, Rasmussen said.

Independents decide close elections, and this is good news for the GOP candidate who wins the party’s Aug. 10 primary.

The GOP primary race is so close and moving so quickly with new attack ads and changes in the political environment that Rasmussen is calling it a toss-up. That seems about right.

CORRECTION: Rasmussen is calling the Colorado Senate race a toss-up, not the Colorado GOP primary race, which I think is also a toss-up. Link: Election 2010: Colorado Senate. Rasmussen Reports.

Jane Norton will vote for GOP gubernatorial candidate regardless; Ken Buck refuses to say

Republican U.S. Senate candidate, Jane Norton, told Craig Silverman on Caplis and Silverman (630 KHOW) that she is disappointed that Tom Tancredo will run as a third party candidate and that she will vote for the GOP candidate regardless of whether that  is the disgraced Scott McInnis, Dan Maes or somebody else.

Earlier on the same show, Ken Buck refused to say how he will vote. And he said he won’t renounce Tom Tancredo’s support.

Buck also said that he was thinking about less than 10 people he’s encountered on the campaign trail when he called birthers who attended Tea Party and other campaign events and engaged him on the question of whether Barack Obama was born in the U.S. Those people, Buck said, distracted from the issues of the Senate campaign.

Dick Wadhams called Scott McInnis ‘untrustworthy,’ Dan Maes a ‘joke’

Peter Boyles and Tom Tancredo on 630 KHOW said Colorado GOP Chairman has told them that GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis is “untrustworthy,” and he’s told them that McInnis’ primary opponent, Dan Maes, is a “joke.” Wadhams denied saying that and he said John Hickenlooper would beat Tancredo two to one.

Tancredo said on the radio that he had sat down with Wadhams and talked about what they could do about McInnis and Maes.

Boyles pretty much sided with Tancredo and called McInnis and Maes “jokers.”

Wadhams, of course, is in a tough position because he can’t pick sides in the Republcian Party Aug. 10 primary. He said he will back whoever wins the primary.

After Wadhams asked Tancredo if he would drop out if the GOP replaced McInnis with a strong candidate, Tancredo asked if Wadhams if he would back Tancredo if the GOP didn’t name a candidate or named a weak one. Wadhams said he couldn’t back Tancredo against a GOP candidate and promised that the GOP would have a candidate. “That’s win, win for you and lose, lose for Tom,” Boyles asserted.

Tancredo’s never been caught telling lies. Wadhams is a professional political campaign manager.

On Caplis and Silverman, Wadhams called Tancredo a “manical egotist.” Wadhams then blasted Tancredo for having run for office in five decades and not being a loyal Republican. 

Hickenlooper will win the election with Tancredo in the race, Wadhams predicted. He predicted that Tancredo will talk about national and international issues rather than about state issues.

Craig Silverman told Wadhams, “I’ve never heard such invective.” 

Wadhams was very unconvincing. He’s on a rant. He’s defensive and he’s making outrageous comments about Tancredo. His credibility is going into the toilet, which is too bad, because other GOP candidates will need his help and support during the campaign.

Colorado GOP’s priorties: Senate, CD-4, Secretary of State, Attorney General

The most important races for Colorado Republicans in 2010 are the U.S. Senate, CD-4, secretary of state, attorney general, the general assembly and treasurer. Governor-elect John Hickenlooper looks like a pretty easy winner. Clear the Bench is doomed.

Is Ken Buck already moving to center with clever gaffes?

U.S. Senate candidate, Ken Buck, is a clever career government attorney and prosecutor. He’s got a problem if he wins the Aug. 10 primary against Jane Norton. He’s too far right. 

Does he have a clever strategy to fix that problem? Or has he just stumbled on one with dumb luck?

He may have a clever strategy, but it’s probably a result of dumb luck. The problem is that the strategy may be too clever for Buck’s own good. It could cost him the nomination.

Look at the pattern. Connect the dots.

First, Buck dissed Tom Tancredo’s warning that President Barack Obama is the greatest threat to our liberty. Then he backed off and agreed that progressives, led by Obama, are a major threat. Point made to independents and softened a bit.

Second, Buck said the difference between him and Jane Norton is that he doesn’t wear High Heels but wears western boots—soiled western boots. He showed his talent for humor, gave Norton a strong talking point and ad and may have quipped his nomination away. But, then, he showed he’s only human. (Yeah, this is a stretch.)

Third, Buck said over the weekend that Tea Partiers who are birthers are dumb axxes. Well, at least Buck isn’t a birther. Appology extended, point made with independents and people who are tired of birthers.

Norton’s blasting Buck for shooting himself in the foot. Says he’ll “fit right in” in Washington, DC. He is clever, after all. 

But maybe these so-called gaffes will serve Buck well if he wins the primary. That “if”, of course, is very big even though he leads Norton in very old independent polls that are very out of date. It’s a toss up at this point.

I’m clever, too. I’m neutral in this race.