3% chance government-run HMO enacted by 2010; 66.1% chance Dems will hold House

Speculators at Intrade.com are giving ObamaCare’s public option health plan (Fannie Med, government HMO) a 3% (bid price) chance of enactment by January 1. They’re speculating that Democrats have a 66.1% chance to hold the House in 2010, down from close to 80% only a month or two ago. In a thinly traded market, Sen. Michael Bennet is given a 35% chance (bid price) to win next year. The Ask price is 52%. Such a wide spread indicates a lack of interest in the race on the part of traders and a lot of uncertainty. The Colorado governor’s market is virtually inactive so far.

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