Futures speculators give Ken Buck 62% chance of beating Michael Bennet

Speculators on Intrade’s political futures markets are giving Ken Buck a 62.1% chance of beating Michael Bennet on Nov. 2. The Buck to win market is fairly liquid by Intrade standards with the 62.1% bid only about 8 points below the 70% ask price. In the Bennet to win market, the bid is 25.1%, or 14 points below the 39.1% ask price. If Buck wins, the bid price goes to 100%, a nice 38-point gain. At the same time, if Buck wins, the bid price goes to zero, a 25-point loss. Buy both and you stand to make a 14-point profit. If Bennet wins, his futures market gives you almost a 75-point profit as it goes to 100, and the Buck market costs you 62 points. So you stand to make 13 points if Bennet wins and you buy both Buck and Bennet-to-win-contracts. I think Buck has about a 53% chance to win, but I’m not going fight or trade this market. There is no trade in the Colorado Governors markets. LINK: Go to www.Intrade.com. Click on Politics, click on 2010 U.S. Senate Races and click on Colorado (Incumbent: Michael Bennet - D).

Commenting is not available in this channel entry.

<< Back to main