Ken Buck, Andrew Romanoff look strong in tonight’s caucuses, but so what?

Republican and Democrat activists may give Ken Buck and Andrew Romanoff minor upset victories in the preference straw polls at their parties’ caucuses tonight, but unless they can raise a lot more money than they have so far, the caucuses probably won’t mean much. Politico quotes several Colorado political observers who all downplay the significance of the caucuses for Buck and Jane Norton, the Republicans, and Romanoff and appointed Sen. Michael Bennet, the Democrats. What they don’t point out, as I have several times, is that underfunded candidates like Buck and Romanoff, never have won the gubernatorial or Senate contests in Colorado. Click on this story’s headline to see the impact graphs:

But history shows that a victory in the first step of Colorado’s complicated election process only occasionally translates into success in the primary. Over the past four decades, just three statewide candidates who have captured the backing of the state assembly through the caucus process went on to become their party’s nominee.

Former Sen. Ken Salazar and Tom Strickland — the last two Democratic Senate nominees in Colorado who faced contested primaries — both lost the caucuses.

“The caucuses are significant but are not that important,” noted Katy Atkinson, a GOP strategist in the state. “There’s plenty of people who have been first on the ballot who have gone on to lose the primary.”

Stratton, who ran the 2004 Salazar campaign that lost the precinct caucuses to progressive favorite Mike Miles, said that while Romanoff had demonstrated his appeal with the activists and insiders who populate the caucuses, he had yet to show he could compete among the broader Democratic primary electorate.

“With most insiders, Romanoff has the advantage. As the universe grows to primary voters, the advantage shifts to Bennet,” Stratton said.

 

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