Pollster says his survey understates Tom Tancredo’s strength; GOP likey to win General Assembly
Tom Tancredo probably is leading John Hickenlooper in the race for governor, and Republicans have a good chance of winning Colorado's General Assembly, David Flaherty, CEO of Magellan Data Strategies, Louisville, CO, just told me in a phone interview. He said that while his poll has been adjusted for voting patterns in the 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections, the results won't be adjusted to reflect early mail ballot voting or expected turnouts until sometime next week. Magellan also has surveyed state legislative races and Republicans are "winning in surprising places," he said.
"It appears to me that the momentum is gaining in both the Republican votes. At 73% of the Republican votes, there still is a chunk that we can gain that will put us on top," Tancredo told me in a phone interview after I gave him the results of the Magellan poll.
In a statement, the Tancredo campaign said:
"The pundits and the press and the partisans said the Tancredo candidacy was implausible, impossible a few short weeks ago," said Bay Buchanan, Tancredo's. "Today we know they were wrong."
"The tax-and-spend liberal Mayor's lead is gone, and Team Tancredo is going to win this Governor's race," added Buchanan.
Tancredo said he is surging because he is articulating a clear vision for the state. Even the Denver Post, which predictably endorsed the hometown Mayor, has said that Tancredo has the most detailed plan to balance the budget.
"While the Mayor cuts corn ball advertisements and appeals to voters yearning for buffoonery in the , we're talking issues, vision, and solutions," said Tancredo.Can Hickenlooper pickup some support? "He is stuck and he has been stuck at 44% to 46% for the past year. I have nothing that indicates that that will change in the next week," Tancredo said.
On Aug. 1, I wrote: "I’ve been predicting that in a three way race, Hickenlooper would get 45% of the vote to about 35% for Tancredo and 5% to 10% for McInnis (or Maes). That looks like the direction the campaign is going." Hick's still at 44%, it's Tancredo who's headed for 45%-plus.
LINKS: John Hickenlooper 44%, Tom Tancredo 43%, Dan Maes 9%; Tancredo has the momentum, by Donald E. L. Johnson. Colorado governor survey (10/22/10), Magellan.