FactCheck.Org has published a long article that quotes so-called experts who predict that Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s health spending bill (HR 3962) won’t have much of an impact on jobs. The CBO and Rand Corp. reportedly have come to similar conclusions. FactCheck’s report is full of holes:

Factcheck.org, CBO and Rand don’t know what they’re talking about.

Number one, how can Factcheck check predictions? Number two, how can bureaucrats at CBO who’ve never run businesses predict what employers would do under HR 3962? And number three, see number two.

As a retired owner of a small business and a career business journalist, I can and have assessed the likely impact of HR 3962, as have leaders of various small business organizations. Here’s the that problem the so-called experts refuse to recognize and admit:

Small employers won’t hire as long as they see that Congress has the power to reduce the payroll level that forces them to comply with HR 3962. Simply by not indexing the thresh hold for inflation in wages and the CPI, it will be reduced over time. Also, if you read the bill, you’ll see that the requirements that small employers have to fulfill to qualify for credits would make it a waste of time. The bill effectively would double a small business’s cost of doing its taxes.

Lessons learned: Factcheck is fallible. CBO and Rand are lousy researchers and forecasters when it comes to small employers.

Links

How Pelosi health insurance deform bill (HR 3962) gets small employers. The Business Word, 10.29.2009. The section of the bill that gets small employers is in this blog post.

Small business groups, WSJ finally find their voices on health spending bill HR 3962. The Business Word, 11.09.2009.

Why can’t and won’t politicians articulate the problems with the health spending bills? The Business Word, 11.09.2009.

Karen Kerrigan: ObamaCare (HR 3962) burdens small employers with higher costs, crushing taxes. The Business Word, 11.08.2009.

Why health spending bill (HR 3962) is anti-Colorado. The Business Word, 11.07.2009.

Wellpoint (WLP): Health reform will hike costs for Colorado’s young, lower costs for high risks. The Business Word, 10.23.2009.

Experts say the House bill’s employer mandate would have a small impact on jobs. FactCheck.org, which doesn’t let readers comment on its articles as they are published.