Without running a commercial or having said much during the Colorado Republican’s disastrous July, Governor-elect John Hickenlooper has the support of 46% of Colorado voters in a three-way race against Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes who get 24% each. If the GOP candidate is Scott McInnis instead of Maes, he would get 25% to 26% for Tancredo and 44% for Hickenlooper, according to a new poll published in the Denver Post. (Now that I’ve found the actual poll results on 9News, the poll’s co-sponsor, I’ve corrected the numbers, which weren’t totally clear on the Post’s site.) The poll shows the underfunded Maes, who has failed to impress Republican activists, leading the admitted plagiarist, McInnis, 43% to 39% with a 4 point margin of error.

As a result of McInnis’ integrity scandal and growing doubts about his competence, McInnis is sinking rapidly in the polls even before Hickenlooper or independent Democrat groups have a chance to hit him hard with negative ads. And Maes, who has his own ethical and competence problems is gaining on McInnis only because while he’s been hammered in the media and on conservative blogs, he really hasn’t been taken on by the Democrats, either.

I’ve been predicting that in a three way race, Hickenlooper would get 45% of the vote to about 35% for Tancredo and 5% to 10% for McInnis (or Maes). That looks like the direction the campaign is going.

That the Post’s poll shows that Hickenlooper is leading Maes 50% to 41% and McInnis 48% to 43% doesn’t mean much because the public is still coming to grips with the character and competency weaknesses of the GOP candidates.

McInnis and Maes are at their peaks. Hickenlooper, his backers and Tancredo will bury them with negative ads and reminders of why McInnis and Maes would be lousy and weak governors.

If Maes wins, which still seems unlikely given that so many McInnis backers made the mistake of voting early, he won’t drop out. That means that there would be a three-way race between Hickenlooper, Tancredo and Maes. Hickenlooper almost certainly would win. 

Tancredo may be running on the American Constitution Party ticket, but he’s really a Republican and always will be. Maes, on the other hand, has said that the GOP doesn’t mean much to him. 

Republican leaders and activists currently are trashing their best candidate, Tancredo, the real Republican. Are they going to back the so so conservative and wimpy Republican, Maes, or the real Republican, Tancredo? 

To date, the state’s GOP central committee is pursuing a losing strategy of backing Mcinnis or Maes regardless of their integrity, intellectual, experience and competency failings. The Colorado GOP brand is going the way of Enron. 

The central committee had better reconsider and get behind Tancredo unofficially, if not officially.

Tancredo spent 10 years in the state legislature and 10 in Congress. He’s much smarter and wiser than any of the other three candidates—Hickenlooper, McInnis and Maes—and he would be a much better governor than any of them.

The Denver Post poll shows how the McInnis scandal has destroyed his candidacy. Once the public knows more about Maes, his popularity will tank, too. In 2006, Bob Beauprez made a few untimely and stupid comments and lost by some 17 percentage points. McInnis and Maes have not only said dumb things, they have done and are doing things that make them look dumb. They have no chance and probably will make “Both ways Bob” look like a genius.

If McInnis manages to win the primary, it’s hard to see how he could stay in the race. He’s a very slow learner and very proud and stubborn, but he’s a political pro and can read the tea leaves well enough to know that he’s done. The pressure on him to quit is growing, and this poll, negative ads and a few nudges from his sugar daddies may get him to quit.

As long as Maes or Mcinnis are in the race, Tancredo will be in to win. There will be a three-way race, and only Governor-elect Hickenlooper will enjoy the show.

The poll was conducted by Survey USA.

LINKs:

Maes holds slight edge over McInnis, poll says. By Michael Booth and Colleen O’Connor.

Poll: Romanoff barely beating Bennet; Maes ahead of McInnis. By Christina Dickinson.