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Articles by Donald E. L. Johnson

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Today is Thursday, December 08, 2016


Who would win in Jeb Bush v Scott Walker, Marco Rubio v Walker? Walker looks strongest

Jeb Bush leads Republican candidates in the latest CNN Poll with support from 17% of 435 self-described Republicans and GOP-leaning "independents." Scott Walker gets 12% of the votes followed by Rand Paul and Marco Rubio with 11% each. How would the poll be changed if the candidates were Bush v Walker or Bush v Rubio? They're the leaders at the moment. Paul, I think, is a short term fad.

Assume that Bush beats Rubio in the Florida primary and Rubio drops out. Assume Rubio's supporters switch to Bush, which probably wouldn't happen. The losers will be mad. Also assume the votes of Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich and 4 points from  "None/No one" go to Bush. That would give Bush 42%.

Then assume Walker picksup the votes of Perry, Paul, Huckabee, Cruz, Carson and Santorum. That would give him 49% to Bush's 42%.

Now assume Rubio beats Bush in the Florida primary and Bush quits. Give Rubio all of Bush's supporters  plus those who now like Christie, Fiorina, Graham and Kasich and 4% of "None/No one." That would give Walker 49% and Rubio 32%.

Of course, at this point, no one is pretending to know who will win the GOP's presidential nomination in 2016. 

But everyone is playing with scenarios. Speculating is fun if you don't have much skin in the game.


10 takeaways in the GOP race, by Jennifer Rubin

Impressive Republican Field Readies to Take on Hillary, by Fred Barnes

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 04/21/15 at 01:26 PM
'16 PresidentColoradoPolls • (0) CommentsPermalink

Poll: In Colorado, Hillary Clinton loses to Paul, Rubio, Walker; ties Huckabee, beats Cruz, Bush

A Quinnipiac University polls shows Hillary Clinton losing to Rand Paul (44% to 41%) and to Marco Rubio and Scott Walker by one point. She leads among registered voters against Ted Cruz (42% to 41%) and Jeb Bush (41% to 38%). LINK: Early Poll: Hillary Clinton Would Face Tight Races in Iowa, Colorado, by Natalie Andrews.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 04/20/15 at 10:28 PM
'16 PresidentColoradoPolls • (0) CommentsPermalink

Nate Silver: Rasmussen polls statistically ‘biased;’ SurveyUSA polls more accurate

During the 2010 election cycle, Rasmussen Reports issued about 100 polls on races in Colorado and around the country, but polling guru Nate Silver says the Rasmussen Reports were biased toward Republicans and suffered from cost cutting short cuts that produced misleading results. The cost cutting will cost Rasmussen clients as well as credibility. No pollsters are perfect. "Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well," Silver writes. I have to admit that I've been in denial about the Rasmussen bias. LINK: Rasmussen polls were biased and inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA performed strongly, by Nate Silver. UPDATE: Silver defines 'bias' as statistical bias as revealed in poll results compared with other pollsters, not necessarily political bias. When 'house effects' become 'bias', by Nate Silver.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 11/05/10 at 11:19 AM

Which pollster did best on Colorado’s 2010 elections?

Which pollser called the Colorado governor's race? Curtis Hubbard tallies the winners and losers here.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 11/04/10 at 09:09 PM

Denver Post/ 9News poll comes close on Senate race; CNN poll about nails gubernatorial race

The Denver Post/ 9News poll by SurveyUSA about nailed Colorado's U.S. Senate race. And the CNN/Time poll came very close to calling the percentages on the gubernatorial race. LINKS: Ken Buck 47%, Michael Bennet 47% and gaining. The Business Word, 10.24.2010. CNN poll: John Hickenlooper 51%, Tom Tancredo 37%, Dan Maes 10%. The Business Word, 10.27. 2010.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 11/03/10 at 12:48 AM

PPC: John Hickenlooper 48%, Tom Tancredo 43%, Dan Maes 8%; Fox says Hick 47%, Tanc 44%, Maes 6%

John Hickenlooper is leading Tom Tancredo 48% to 43% with 8% going to Dan Maes, according to the final poll by Public Policy Polling. Hickenlooper is getting 87% of the Democratic vote while Tancredo's only getting 71% of the Republican vote. Tancredo says that he will win if he gets 80% of Republicans, and David Flaherty, the CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, has predicted that he will. The final Fox News poll says Hickenlooper 47%, Tancredo 44% and Maes 6%. Fox says Hickenlooper's favorables are 54% to 41% unfavorables while Tancredo's are 48% to 44%. 

 LINKS: Close Senate race in Colorado, by Public Policy Polling. Colorado survey of 1,000 likely voters, Fox News provides interesting cross tabs. Tom Tancredo, John Suthers will win; GOP will retake Colorado House, Senate, by Donald E. L. Johnson, 10.29.2010. Gasp! Pollster says Tancredo wins by 2, by Chuck Plunkett.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 11/01/10 at 08:42 AM

PPP: Ken Buck 49%, Michael Bennet 48%; Fox says Buck 50%, Bennet 46%

Republican Ken Buck is leading Democrat Michael Bennet 49% to 48% in the final poll by Public Policy Polling. Bennet is leading among those who have voted early 52% to 48%. Buck is leading among those who plan to vote but haven't yet, 55% to 41%. The Fox News poll says Buck leads Bennet 50% to 46%. The margin of victory probably will be one to two points, and warnings that there could be a recount seem to be a little too alarmist.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 11/01/10 at 08:09 AM
ColoradoPoliticsPollsRead More

Tom Tancredo agrees with pollster that he can win; says he needs over 80% of Republicans’ votes

If 80% of Republicans vote for Tom Tancredo for governor of Colorado Tuesday, he can win, he told rallies Saturday in Greenwood Village, Ft. Collins, Loveland and Littleton. This is my favorite clip.wink

 LINKS: Tom Tancredo, John Suthers will win; GOP will retake Colorado House, Senate, by Donald E. L. Johnson, 10.29.2010. Gasp! Pollster says Tancredo wins by 2, by Chuck Plunkett.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/30/10 at 11:21 PM

John Hickenlooper 47%, Tom Tancredo 43%, Dan Maes 7% in McClatchy-Marist poll

John Hickenlooper leads Tom Tancredo 47% to 43% with Dan Maes coming in at 7% in a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/30/10 at 05:23 PM

Ken Buck 49%, Michael Bennet 45% in McClatchy-Marist poll

Ken Buck leads Michael Bennet 49% to 45% in the McClatchy-Marist poll.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/30/10 at 05:02 PM

Rasmussen: John Hickenlooper 47%, Tom Tancredo 42%, Dan Maes 5%

John Hickenlooper leads Tom Tancredo 47% to 42% among likely voters while Dan Maes gets 5%, according to Rasmussen Reports.

However, in an interview this morning, David Flaherty, CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a pollster that works for Republicans, told me that he thinks Rasmussen misuses Colorado's demographic information in its polls. "They're good and know what they're doing," he said. But he thinks Rasmussen gives the GOP less credit for its historical and anticipated turnout and the Democrats more. As I reported this morning, Flaherty thinks Tancredo will win.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/29/10 at 12:35 PM

Tom Tancredo, John Suthers will win; GOP will retake Colorado House, Senate

Tom Tancredo will become Colorado's next governor, and Republicans will take over the state's legislature while Attorney General John Suthers will be re-elected, predicted David Flaherty, president and CEO of Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, a Louisville, CO, pollster that works for Republicans around the country. In a phone interview, Flaherty said polls that show John Hickenlooper winning the gubernatorial race are using demographics and turnout numbers that incorrectly skew their results in favor of Democrats.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/29/10 at 09:30 AM
ColoradoPoliticsPollsRead More

What will Rasmussen report on Colorado’s gubernatorial contest?

Rasmussen Reports is about to report its latest survey results for the Colorado gubernatorial contest between Tom Tancredo and John Hickenlooper. Rasmussen's findings are critical because other recent polls have been so confusing. Two or three recent polls have Hickenlooper leading Tancredo by 10 to 14 points, and two others have him leading by one to three points. Rasmussen just released a new report on California where Republican Meg Whitman has moved to within 4 points of former Gov. Jerry Brown who leads her 49% to 45%, making that race a toss up, according to Rasmussen. UPDATE: Rasmussen has posted its Massachusetts poll, which shows the incumbent Obama Democrat  Deval Patrick and the Republican leading the Republican challenger Charles Baker 46% to 44% with a Democrat who has turned independent, Tim Cahil getting 6%.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/29/10 at 08:04 AM

CD-3 may go for Scott Tipton, CD-4 for Cory Gardner, CD-7 for Ed Perlmutter; Senate a toss up

Republicans have good chances of unseating two Congressional Democrats in Colorado while the U.S. Senate race is a toss up, according to Real Clear Politics, which says the GOP will win the U.S. House and Democrats probably will hold the Senate.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/29/10 at 07:38 AM
ColoradoPoliticsPollsRead More

CNN poll: John Hickenlooper 51%, Tom Tancredo 37%, Dan Maes 10%

John Hickenlooper leads Tom Tancredo for governor among 829 likely voters 51% to 37% with Dan Maes coming in at 10%, according to a CNN/Time poll. The poll was conducted Oct. 20 to 26, which means that it has a lot of out-of-date replies because there has been a lot of campaign news since Oct. 20. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll apparently hasn't been weighted for historical voting patterns, early turnout or expected turnout patterns. Two polls have Hickenlooper leading by 10 to 14 points and two by 3 to 4 percentage points. I don't think the differences reflect pollsters biases as much as differences in methodology and timing of the polling.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/27/10 at 05:43 PM
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