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Articles by Donald E. L. Johnson

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Iowa Poll: Mitt Romney 24%, Ron Paul 22%, Rick Santorum 15%, Newt Gingrich 12%

Mitt Romney leads 24% to 22% for Ron Paul and 15% for Rick Santorum in the final Iowa Poll by the Des Moines Register, which reported:

 

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

 

Last night I predicted on the Washington Post's Right Turn blog's comment section that Romney will get 30% of  Tuesday's votes by Iowa caucuse goers while Santorum will get 20% and Paul 19%.

What the Iowa GOP's presidential caucuses will do is cause voters and the media to put asside any thoughts about nominating Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann or Jon Huntsman.

If Romney wins Iowa Tuesday and New Hampshire's primary a week from Tuesday, he'll go into the S. Carolina primary with a lot of momentum, if not as the favorite. If Santorum wins or places second or third, he'll win some new followers for New Hampshire and beyond, but he doesn't have time to organize a serious campaign or raise Big Money to win the GOP's presidential nomination. 

While Paul has the resources and organization needed to continue a long campaign, none of the other likely losers in Tuesday's primary do. He and some of the other losers may stick around to participate in debates and hype their books. Paul seems to be focusing on selling books and hyping his investments in the stocks of gold and silver mining companies. Some 64% of his substantial investments are in those stocks and another 14% are in real estate, according to his Congressional disclosures.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 12/31/2011 at 06:06 PM

'12 President

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