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Articles by Donald E. L. Johnson

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Fiscal cliff: Would Obama tax hikes mean end of 47%, more pay taxes, end of GOP?

President Obama wants to kill the Republican Party by getting the House GOP to renege on its 20-year-old pledge to not raise taxes. There is a 25% to 35% chance he may get them to commit political suicide. If the House GOP caves on the fiscal cliff, a lot of economic conservatives will stay home in 2014. But there are some interesting questions about  the fiscal cliff and what would happen if we went over it next year.

1. Whose tax credits, tax loopholes, depreciation schedules, government contracts and government subsidies is Norquist protecting?
2. If we go over the cliff, what percent of working Americans will NOT pay income taxes? 47%, 35%, 30%, or what?
3. If we go over the cliff, wouldn't it advance future tax votes if more Americans had to pay the increased taxes and pressed Congress to NOT raise taxes again?
4. If defense is cut another $500 billion, what welfare programs, health benefits, retirement benefits and pork for contractors would be cut first?
5. What kind of security threat would it take to get Congress to reinstate most defense spending? Isn't the Middle East mess enough as it is?
6. Since the fiscal stimulus bill of 2009 and ObamaCare upped spending some $1 trillion over 10 years, maybe $2T, wouldn't it be easy to cut spending under sequestration?
7. If Sequestration made Obama stop picking energy winners and losers with his crony capitalism spending on his favored few ethanol and wind tower makeris, wouldn't we see revivals in petroleum exploration and coal? Wouldn't markets work?
8. With sequestration, would infrastructure spending increase and use up the increased tax revenues? Or would the need to pay down the debt, House refusals to spend on infrastructure unless defense spending was increased again cause more gridlock and help reduce all spending? 
9. While stock markets might drop 5% or so if we went over the cliff, would there be enough certainty for businesses to begin investing and hiring again as the economy recovered?

If we go over the cliff, I blame Obama more than the GOP. Obama Democrats are so greedy for political power that they'll do anything to win it, including putting lots of Americans out of work in the process. Obama Democrats are just like the Hostess union leaders who fund them.

The problem is that few trust or believe Obama Democrats or Republicans. That makes it hard to get anything done. The markets have to clear out the dead wood in a bunch of markets before there can be a recovery.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 11/24/2012 at 09:51 AM

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