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66% chance Ken Buck Will beat Michael Bennet; 12% odds that Tom Tancredo will top John Hickenlooper

Nate Silver gives Ken Buck a 66% chance of beating appointed Obama Democrat Michael Bennet and predicts that Buck will win 50% to 48%. Using a model that is programmed with several variables such as polls and demographics and voting histories, Silver also says that there is a 12% chance that John Hickenlooper  will lose to either Tom Tancredo or Dan Maes. He predicts Hickenlooper will get 48%, Tancredo 36% and Maes 16%. I'm thinking Hickenlooper will win with 45% to 48% to Tancredo's 40% to 44% and the crumbs for Maes. Tancredo has to take voters from Hickenlooper and Maes, and that will be tough with only two weeks to go until election day. Rasmussen shows Hickenlooper leading Tancredo 42% to 38% and Fox News shows Hickenlooper winning 45% to 40%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll has Hickenlooper beating Tancredo 46% to 35% and Buck beating Bennet 48% to 45%.  LINK: Gubernatorial forecast update: Can Tancredo win Colorado? By Nate Silver.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/20/2010 at 02:40 PM


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