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Articles by Donald E. L. Johnson

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CD-3 may go for Scott Tipton, CD-4 for Cory Gardner, CD-7 for Ed Perlmutter; Senate a toss up

Republicans have good chances of unseating two Congressional Democrats in Colorado while the U.S. Senate race is a toss up, according to Real Clear Politics, which says the GOP will win the U.S. House and Democrats probably will hold the Senate.


The 3rd Congressional district, which is held by Democrat U.S. Rep. John Salar, is leaning toward Republican Scott Tipton. CD-4, which is held by Democrat U.S. Rep. Betsy Markey is leaning toward Republican Cory Gardner. CD-7, which is held by Democrat U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter is leaning his way. It will take a major GOP wave for Republican Ryan Frazier to unseat Perlmutter.

Four Colorado members of the U.S. House are in safe seats: Diana DeGette (D-CD 1), Jared Polis (D-CD 2), Doug Lamborn (R-CD 5) and Mike Coffman (R-CD 6).

Real Clear Politics, which averages poll results in Congressional districts and in the Senate races, says 222 Republicans will win, including 163 safe GOP seats. 218 seats are needed to control the House. RCP says Democrats will win 173 seats, includng 121 safe seats. That leaves 40 House races that are toss-ups. In a wave year like this, Republicans stand to win more of the toss ups than Democrats will. 

Independent, objective analysts are predicting Republicans will pickup a net of 50 to 70 House seats this year.

RCP says 49 Democrats will win. It says 44 Democrats are safe or not up for elections this year. It says 45 Republicans will be elected, including 35 that are safe or not up for election. Six Senate seats are toss ups, including Colorado's race between Republican Ken Buck and Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet.

Most objective analysts think that the Democrats will wind up with 52 to 55 seats in the Senate, which means they will retain control. Some Republicans are still hoping the GOP will win 10 seats and take control of the Senate, but that seems very unlikely.


Breaking early voter returns: Congressional district breakdowns, by Michael Sandoval.

Posted by Donald E. L. Johnson on 10/29/2010 at 07:38 AM


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